Toby Ord defends AI-2027-style forecasts: no explosion wouldn't discredit a ~50% intelligence-exhaustion bet
tobyordoxford · x · 2026-11-11
In a exchange with AI-2027 critic Tamay Besiroglu, Oxford philosopher Toby Ord argues the pacing argument runs: without slowdowns there's a substantial (50%) chance of an intelligence explosion next year, which would be very bad—so slowing down matters. He notes the forecasters assign only 1/3–2/3 probabilities, so a failed guess would be a minor update against their reliability, not 'discrediting'—though they should state their probabilities more explicitly to avoid misinterpretation.
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