METR Task-Horizon Doubling Time Shrinks to ~4 Months

Analyses suggest METR's task-horizon doubling time has accelerated to roughly 4 months since mid-2024, much faster than the earlier 7-month estimate, with METR itself using shorter doubling estimates.

2026-08-22 ~ 2026-08-22 · 3 related posts

• METR Time Horizon Doubling Time May Be Closer to 4 Months — dfrsrchtwts · 2026-08-22
• METR estimates 3.5-month doubling time for AI capabilities — dfrsrchtwts · 2026-08-22
• METR Time Horizons Doubling Every 4 Months, Accelerating from 7 — davidad · 2026-08-22