METR Time Horizons Doubling Every 4 Months, Accelerating from 7
davidad · x · 2026-08-22
Davidad disputes the meme that METR time horizons double every 7 months. Analyzing the METR plot, he argues that doubling times have accelerated since mid-2024. His back-of-the-napkin math suggests the current doubling rate is closer to 4 months.
Related event: METR Task-Horizon Doubling Time Shrinks to ~4 Months(3 posts)→
More from AGI Musings
- When Will the Industry Vanish? The Lifespan of the Programmer Profession — lxfater · 2026-08-22
- AI + Robotics to Drive Off-World Civilization as World Shrinks — johnmccrea · 2026-08-22
- David Chalmers raises the meta-problem of AI consciousness — davidad · 2026-08-22
- Silicon Valley Bets on Superintelligence While Europe Seeks Safeguards — nordicinst · 2026-08-22
- Redefining ATI: Can I see the difference outside my window? — menhguin · 2026-08-22
- Writing is Just Output, Not the Endpoint of Creation — sujingshen · 2026-08-22