Ben Todd: spark vs software-only singularity is really about which feedback loops run how far

ben_j_todd · x · 2026-11-15

Ben Todd clarifies the spark vs. software-only singularity debate:

Both scenarios are driven by a software-only feedback loop; hardware loops are additive in both cases.
Spark (4-6 years of progress in <1 year) is what AI safety folks expected by default — few believe you foom all the way to physical limits.
The main opposing view: compute bottlenecks and diminishing returns will bind hard enough to prevent much acceleration.
He prefers framing it as (i) different kinds of feedback loops and (ii) how far each runs before running out of steam.

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