Epoch ECI Trend Fit: Anthropic's Latest Model Runs ~5 Months Ahead
peterwildeford · x · 2026-11-15
The author fits a linear trend to Epoch ECI per company and checks where each latest model sits relative to it:
- Anthropic's Fable 5.2 is 5 months ahead of trend, far outside the normal range — a clear sign of acceleration.
- Google's Gemini 4 Carbon is 4.5 months ahead, but Google's noisy track record means this could be chance — a moderate indication.
- OpenAI, DeepSeek and Moonshot are currently on trend, with no evidence of acceleration yet.
Takeaway: AI progress appears to be accelerating, but not yet at every company based on public data; undisclosed internal research models may reveal more.
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