The rarer the hypothetical, the more broken the conditional prediction market
lxrjl · x · 2026-11-12
Extending his earlier argument, lxrjl notes that conditional prediction markets break down the more unlikely the action being evaluated. His example: asking whether an international treaty banning AI before the end of 2027 would be good — the conditional prediction for such a far-fetched scenario is "completely fucked," since extreme low-probability events can't attract enough traders for meaningful pricing.
Related event: Conditional Forecasting Fails for Unlikely Events, Analyst Warns(2 posts)→
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