Conditional Forecasting Fails for Unlikely Events, Analyst Warns

A commentator argues that conditional prediction markets become increasingly unreliable for highly unlikely events, such as a hypothetical international treaty banning AI by 2027, making them poor tools for evaluating whether such policies are worth supporting.

2026-11-12 ~ 2026-11-12 · 2 related posts

• The rarer the hypothetical, the more broken the conditional prediction market — lxrjl · 2026-11-12
• Why conditional predictions fail for unlikely policies: the case of a 2027 AI treaty ban — lxrjl · 2026-11-12