AI risk community splits: intelligence explosion next year vs. low odds in 1-3 years
deanwball · x · 2026-11-11
A debate broke out in the AI risk community. Tamay Besiroglu noted a growing consensus that an intelligence explosion is likely next year, predicting this will be disproven and the proponents discredited.
Samuel Hammond (RT'd by Dean Ball) responded that classical intelligence explosion odds in the next 1-3 years are low, but that's an unnecessarily high bar — a dramatic, relatively discontinuous speedup in AI R&D is concerning enough without literal foom.
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