Chart: AI's cost curve vs. cumulative spending looks just like every past tech
HaydnBelfield · x · 2026-11-11
Vlad Chituc argues AI only looks exceptional when plotted against time; plotted against cumulative inflation-adjusted spending, it resembles everything else. The Epoch AI charts compare AI's relative-cost decline (2022–2026, 47%/quarter trend) with electricity, lithium batteries, compute, DNA sequencing, transistors, DRAM, hard drives, solar PV and the Ford Model T — suggesting the stunning price collapse of "artificial thought" is largely driven by massive investment rather than a unique dynamic. Amplified by Oxford AI-governance researcher Haydn Belfield.
Related event: Epoch AI Chart: AI Costs Falling Faster Than Any Prior Technology(3 posts)→
More from AGI Musings
- Viral post: five years of 'maybe next year,' then 2026 arrived — hey_abusiddik · 2026-11-11
- 'Chat with your data' misses the point — people want a smart coworker — vboykis · 2026-11-11
- Ben Todd: AI task time horizons appear superexponential in AECI, not just revenue — ben_j_todd · 2026-11-11
- When AI becomes an oracle, what happens to mathematics? — stevenstrogatz · 2026-11-11
- David Patterson: superintelligence will end profit and equity growth, only sales-tax-funded universal high income works — davidpattersonx · 2026-11-11
- Even after a 6-month recursive leap, AI progress stays 3x the 2024 rate — ben_j_todd · 2026-11-11