Even after a 6-month recursive leap, AI progress stays 3x the 2024 rate
ben_j_todd · x · 2026-11-11
Ben Todd highlights Forethought's speed-up calculator: even after recursive self-improvement compresses 4 years of AI progress into 6 months, subsequent progress likely still runs at 3x the 2024 rate—enough for 1-2 GPT generations per year or a 10x AI researcher population.
More from AGI Musings
- MIT's Buehler builds "recursive meta-intelligence": hundreds of AI agents inhabit self-created worlds to study material failure — ProfBuehlerMIT · 2026-11-11
- AI timeline forecasters' odds revealed: TED-AI medians cluster in 2027-2028, p by EO2027 up to 65% — davidmanheim · 2026-11-11
- Not Boring: the three arguments that AI isn't a bubble are exactly how bubbles form — Not Boring (Packy McCormick) · 2026-11-11
- Viral post: five years of 'maybe next year,' then 2026 arrived — hey_abusiddik · 2026-11-11
- Jeremy Howard: LLMs "cosplay understanding," like the man in Searle's Chinese room — Machine Learning Street Talk · 2026-11-11
- 'Chat with your data' misses the point — people want a smart coworker — vboykis · 2026-11-11