Ben Todd: AI task time horizons appear superexponential in AECI, not just revenue
ben_j_todd · x · 2026-11-11
Ben Todd (80,000 Hours founder) quotes his own earlier analysis to add an observation: AI task time horizons appear to be growing superexponentially in AECI, consistent with the trend already seen in revenue.
The detailed data and charts are in the linked post. If it holds, the frontier of long tasks AI can complete is advancing faster than exponential extrapolation suggests — with direct implications for timelines on capability growth and labor-market impact.
More from AGI Musings
- Dev Dimillian calls for content on AI-assisted work vs. pure AI slop — Dimillian · 2026-11-11
- How long until a phone-runnable model solves a Millennium Prize Problem — and Siri still lags? — paul_cal · 2026-11-11
- Superforecasters cut ASI timeline by 3 years to 2028, citing METR report — ben_j_todd · 2026-11-11
- Bill Gates says AI harms may need to be endured first, fueling fears of government control — nikola_mr64990 · 2026-11-11
- Security researcher: hours weekly with ChatGPT Voice still feels like talking to a machine — joshua_saxe · 2026-11-11
- The Carlsen vs Stockfish lesson: nobody pays to watch the engine — teodorio · 2026-11-11