AI 2027 Team Revises Timelines: METR Report Points to Intelligence Explosion in 2027
DKokotajlo · x · 2026-11-11
The AI Futures Project (Daniel Kokotajlo, Eli Lifland et al.) published an urgent timelines update arguing the intelligence explosion will happen in 2027.
- Key evidence: METR estimates Anthropic is now making AI progress 2x its historical rate (range 1.3x–3x), with perhaps 80% of that acceleration driven by AI itself — implying a pace 5 months ahead of the original AI 2027 scenario.
- Updated forecasts: The team now unanimously predicts Superhuman AI Researcher (SAR) will likely arrive in 2027 absent deliberate slowdown, with a 35–65% chance Top-Expert-Dominating AI (TED-AI) — automating all white-collar work — arrives before 2028. Previously even the most bullish member gave SAR-before-2029 only 50%.
- Implication: If SAR lands in 2027, alignment won't be ready; the authors urge an industry-wide pause and international agreement, admitting they are 'scared, sad, and angry.'
Related event: AI 2027 Team Updates Timeline: Intelligence Explosion Now Expected in 2027(7 posts)→
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