Nat Lambert bets intelligence explosion won't happen before early 2028
natolambert · x · 2026-11-11
Hugging Face researcher Nathan Lambert weighs in on the "intelligence explosion" timeline: he's not sure how you'd even measure one, but he's willing to take the side that it will not happen by the beginning of 2028 — at least not in a way where the associated predictions come true, like large-scale knowledge-work job loss or a massive AI-driven stock market surge. A notable reality check against current AGI-optimist timelines.
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