Toby Ord: log-log graphs mislead on power laws — METR time horizon is a case in point
tobyordoxford · x · 2026-11-10
Toby Ord flags a methodological pitfall in a discussion with Ben Todd: many curves look roughly straight on log-log plots, making power laws hard to confirm — especially when one axis spans only a single order of magnitude. He adds that the 50% METR time horizon can go to infinity without dramatically changing the world, and that a similar chart could be drawn with AECI, which would be more meaningful.
Related event: Oxford's Toby Ord Questions METR Timeline Metric and Power-Law Readings(2 posts)→
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