iamtrask debates 'economic FOOM': why AI job displacement takeoff may be far slower
iamtrask · x · 2026-11-10
OpenAI researcher iamtrask discusses an alternative takeoff argument with Tom Davidson: an 'economic FOOM' where AI's ability to generate revenue crosses a threshold, distinct from the classic recursive-self-improvement logic. He pushes back that the claim is extremely sensitive to details — if AI automates 95% of a job but the remaining 5% is what keeps people safe, outcomes are unclear; Jevon's paradox applies; and the economy's speed of reorganizing is a huge wet blanket on both job displacement and RSI risk. He notes that 'AI gets good enough to displace real jobs' implies a much slower takeoff than 'everyone gets hacked in a day'.
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