Following the METR debate: arguing evidence is weak backfires via trust in researchers
bshlgrs · x · 2026-11-08
Responding to whether METR's 2x estimate should shift if the AECI slope drops (e.g., 1.9x to 1.4x), bshlgrs explains the reasoning is tricky: an argument that public evidence is weaker is itself an update that the redacted evidence was stronger, given moderate trust in the researchers—so the effect is weak.
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