Debate over METR's extrapolation report: which Toby Ord hypothesis was actually rejected
bshlgrs · x · 2026-11-08
bshlgrs and JacquesThibs debate METR's AI capability extrapolation report. JacquesThibs notes METR rejected the "jump-and-same-slope" hypothesis, not Toby Ord's later-proposed one-time-jump-plus-slope-increase mixed model. bshlgrs concedes he was unclear but says his bottom line is unchanged.
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