METR finds Anthropic model progress accelerating 1.9x since Oct 2025; Hanson calls it one-time speedup
sebkrier · x · 2026-11-08
METR reports that since October 2025, AECI benchmark scores for Anthropic's models have grown at 1.9x (95% CI: 1.5–2.8) the earlier rate, suggesting accelerating capability progress. The org itself cautions that benchmarks are only one piece of evidence, analysis choices affect the estimate, and how scores map to real-world capabilities remains unclear.
Economist Robin Hanson pushed back, arguing this looks more like a one-time speedup than continuous acceleration — a core disagreement over whether AI progress is truly exponential.
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