Exponential even on a log scale: METR and Anthropic see no diminishing returns yet

PeterBowdenLive · x · 2026-11-08

Quoting Jeff Ladish's chart of AI capability growth: it remains exponential on a log scale, and leaders at both METR and Anthropic think strong diminishing returns may not arrive soon — which Ladish calls terrifying.

Peter Bowden adds a governance concern: the widening split within existing organizations, from full AI adoption to outright rejection, is itself a destabilizing force as humans navigate change.

Related event: METR capability-doubling report stirs panic and pushback in AI safety circles(7 posts)→

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