METR Progress per R&D Dollar Fell 63% Even as Yearly Gains Doubled
sebkrier · x · 2026-11-08
Michael Wiebe replots METR's AECI trend against cumulative R&D spend: points per $bn of R&D fell from 4.05 in 2025 to 1.49 in 2026 — a 63% drop in progress per dollar — even as yearly progress doubled (+15 to +29 AECI pts/yr after the 7 Oct 2025 breakpoint).
Key points:
- Efficiency by period: 6.58 pts/$bn (2024), 4.05 (H1 2025), 2.16 (Q3 2025), 2.55 (Q4 2025), 1.49 (H1 2026), 0.76 (Q3 2026).
- $27.9bn total nominal R&D bought 55 AECI points.
- Author notes this is descriptive: falling points-per-dollar doesn't prove AI failed to raise research productivity, given no correction for lags, allocation, or rising difficulty.
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