Cheap model first, escalate to Opus when unsure: same accuracy at half the cost

michaelTM_ai · reddit · 2026-11-08

A Hightouch cascade test (#2 on HN) routes a cheap confidence-scoring model first and escalates unsure cases to Opus for identity-resolution checks. Easy set: Opus alone 99.0% at $3.86/1k vs Jev+Opus 98.8% at $0.88. Hard set (twins, same names): Opus alone 95.1% at $5.39 vs Jev+Opus 95.3% at $2.94. Key insight: Luna is more accurate than Jev solo but loses in the cascade — its errors come with high confidence so the router never catches them. For cascades, a cheap model that knows when it's unsure beats one that's right more often.

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