Intel down 46% in 3 months: the bull case rests on 18A costs down 40% and $10B extra data center revenue
tengyanAI · x · 2026-11-06
The semiconductor reset has hit Intel hard — $INTC is down 46% over three months, versus -25% for SOXX. The author lays out the bull case: better manufacturing economics could turn product growth into much higher earnings.
- CEO Lip-Bu Tan says a couple of outside foundry customers could be announced within two quarters
- 18A process costs are down 40% since Q1
- 18A chips went from <5% to nearly a third of client CPU revenue
- Wildcat Lake, the cheap 18A laptop chip, grew units 70% q/q and is sold out
- Data center revenue is tracking $10B above Intel's initial 2026 expectations
Per the CFO's rule of thumb, 40–60% of new revenue falls through to gross profit; cheaper wafers plus new-node volume should deliver operating leverage by 2027, which the CFO already calls a growth year.
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