Toby Ord: Mythos pre-training jump is ~5 ECI points, slope only 1.4x

tobyordoxford · x · 2026-11-06

Oxford researcher Toby Ord's analysis (run with Opus) finds the best jump-plus-slope fit for the new Mythos pre-training is a 5-point ECI jump with a slope 1.4x the old trend, below METR's headline numbers.

Related event: Oxford's Toby Ord Pushes Back on METR's 2x R&D Speedup: Jump-Plus-Slope Fit Suggests Only 1.4x(9 posts)→

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