AI 2027 tracker claims 85% prediction accuracy, says progress is ahead of schedule
connoraxiotes · x · 2026-11-06
A community tracker for the 'AI 2027' scenario reports 202 predictions, 39% evaluated, with 85% accuracy so far—nearly all late-2026 calls landed, the lone miss being a 10,000-person anti-AI protest in DC. Its Task-Horizon chart (METR-style) tracks the scenario's capability curve closely, with the authors claiming we're ahead of schedule. Caveat: it's self-scored, so treat the methodology with skepticism.
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