METR's independent assessment of Anthropic's AI R&D acceleration spurs RSI-in-6-months calls
AndrewCurran_ · x · 2026-11-06
Event: METR published its independent assessment of AI R&D acceleration inside Anthropic (October 2026), triggering a wave of timeline updates in the AI community.
Key points:
- Andrew Curran reports several formerly skeptical prominent figures now predict RSI in under 6 months and ASI in 1–2 years — he agrees with both.
- He tells the safety camp that plans requiring a supportive administration, an accord with China, or a window longer than a year are now pointless.
- The report: METR conducted an external risk assessment of Anthropic. Anthropic redacted most of the evidence METR found most informative, citing risk of accelerating other AI developers. Both sides acknowledge the redacted evidence admits multiple interpretations and synthesizing it is highly uncertain, making public judgment difficult.
More from AGI Musings
- Steve Jobs on obsolescence: no Principia in this field, just sedimentary layers — phroo · 2026-11-07
- Human-level AI may arrive without automating most jobs, argues viral thread — gleech · 2026-11-07
- Hardware x AI x Bio intersection remains a startup white space — jungofthewon · 2026-11-07
- Morgan Stanley: high-AI industries drove 2.0pp of the 2.4% productivity gain — soumitrashukla9 · 2026-11-07
- Musk: agentic internet traffic already exceeds human traffic, Cloudflare's 1000x forecast is an underestimate — elonmusk · 2026-11-07
- Healthcare ransomware attacks up 6x since 2018 as AI agents close the patch gap, a16z says — luisdans · 2026-11-07