Furman: US productivity averages 2.22% this cycle, no AI acceleration yet
soumitrashukla9 · x · 2026-11-05
Former CEA chair Jason Furman highlights whole-cycle average productivity growth as the single macro datapoint to watch.
- The average annual growth rate for the 2019Q4–2026Q3 cycle ticked up from 2.17% (through Q2) to 2.22% (through Q3), essentially in line with the 2.2% long-term average since 1947
- The accompanying chart shows past cycles ranging from 1.4% (1973–1980) to 3.5% (1948–1953), with the 2010s at just 1.5%
- Takeaway: no visible AI-driven productivity acceleration yet in the aggregate data
Related event: US Productivity Surges, Economists Debate AI Impact(2 posts)→
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