a16z: venture marked up 16% in H1 2026 while buyout funds marked down 4%
a16z · x · 2026-11-05
a16z's Jen Kha argues tech buyouts, long the "safe" private-markets bet, are struggling while venture rides the AI wave — as it did through internet, mobile, and cloud.
Key data:
- In H1 2026, venture funds marked tech holdings up 16%; buyout funds marked theirs down 4%
- 70% of debt foreclosed in 2025-26 came from 2021-22 deals
- A typical buyout now needs 10-12% annual EBITDA growth to return 2.5x in five years, vs 5% in 2015
- Top 5% venture funds (2007-16 vintages) returned 5.3x in cash vs 3.5x for top buyout funds
Her thesis: tech buyout is a late-cycle asset class that works once a technology wave settles; when a new wave drops, all bets belong in venture. Since 1990, $1/year into each would leave venture ahead by $9.
More from Venture
- Floot adds built-in Stripe payments and shipping so vibe-coders can finally charge money — aakashgupta · 2026-11-05
- a16z backs Phaze, Parsec founders' agent-ready remote desktop, in $8.75M seed — a16z · 2026-11-05
- AI language tutor Praktika ran 40,466 Meta ads, topping Airbnb — fekdaoui · 2026-11-05
- YC-backed Bayworks signs 80+ dealerships in 110 days, handling 4,000 repairs daily — ycombinator · 2026-11-05
- Lovable hits 70M projects and 100K PRs as founder revisits his 2023 bet on describable software — AlexandrePesant · 2026-11-05
- YC-backed Oasive launches AI research analyst for municipal bonds — ycombinator · 2026-11-05