US-China truce paperwork lags reality: AI supply chain deadlines hit from Nov 9
demian_ai · x · 2026-11-02
Zorg Research maps a supply chain risk almost nobody is watching: although the US-China truce was announced to run until Jan 10, 2027, the legal texts were never updated, so restrictions lapse back into effect step by step in November.
- Nov 9: 178 Section 301 tariff exclusions on Chinese parts expire.
- Nov 10: the US affiliates rule blocking chip-tool sales to Chinese subsidiaries returns, alongside China's rare earth controls.
- Nov 27: China's ban on gallium, germanium and antimony sales to the US comes back.
For AI clusters specifically: gallium and indium go into the lasers inside every optical link, and China produces nearly all the world's gallium; germanium is used in fiber preforms and already costs several times more outside China. A scenario matrix lays out three paths — the most likely being a quiet rollover to January, a less likely tit-for-tat ($600M sales risk for US chip-tool makers), and the least likely full ban returning Nov 28 (fiber shortage, higher 800V rack power costs).
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