Would a US AI slowdown push marginal researchers to China instead?
dfrsrchtwts · x · 2026-11-01
The author challenges a common argument that a US AI slowdown would limit China's catch-up by cutting off leakage of algorithmic secrets and weights. He points to a counter-effect: marginal researchers might then be more likely to work in China than in the US, accelerating a talent shift. He asks whether anyone's models account for this, tagging forecaster @elilifland as a possible source of an answer.
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