Analysis of 5,000 startups: ex tier-1 fund staff triples VC odds, MBA cuts them 40%
deedydas · x · 2026-11-01
Deedy Das analyzed 60 attributes across 5,000 US startups to identify the 15 strongest signals predicting a tier 1-2 VC lead.
Signals that raise odds: ex tier-1 fund staff (3.00x, strongest), ex-Tesla/SpaceX (1.83x), Technion/Tel Aviv U (1.81x), prior company had a tier-1 lead (1.73x), worked at tier-1-backed company (1.58x), CS degree (1.45x), top university (1.41x), ex-Google (1.39x), Harvard (1.37x).
Signals that lower odds: any MBA (0.60x), PhD (0.75x), fintech background (0.74x), oldest founder 50+ (0.66x).
Underlying data: Harmonic, 4,836 US startups 2021-24, logit regression with 59 signals plus controls.
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