Token sellers must become credit-worthy: startups pushed into long contracts and prepayments
evanjconrad · x · 2026-10-31
Evan Conrad lays out a compute-credit thesis: anyone selling tokens—clouds, neoclouds, frontier labs, neolabs—will have to become credit-worthy. One path is long-run predictable cashflow, but these companies are too young, so they must instead sign long-term contracts with credit-worthy tenants.
Startups don't qualify as credit-worthy, so they'll be pushed toward larger prepayments to offset lower LTVs. Conrad predicts startups will increasingly face longer contracts or bigger prepay requirements. He adds that some inference provider will insist "we'd never do that"—right up until lenders, clouds, or VCs stop offering them competitive rates.
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