Sequoia's SpaceX model implies massive 2028 compute demand—but does that much AI demand even exist?
aronchick · x · 2026-10-31
Sequoia's Shaun Maguire built a bottoms-up SpaceX financial model through end-2028, calling the numbers "insane." Aronchick pushes back on the demand side: Anthropic claims $800B of compute commits over unspecified years, while only 2 companies worldwide have >$500B aggregate demand (over 5 years) without owning compute. The model implies SpaceX alone would serve that much compute in 2028—ignoring competitors picking up demand, efficiency gains, and falling per-token/per-hour pricing as supply loosens. His takeaway: he's not sure that much demand exists, or that there's enough money to support it.
Related event: Sequoia's SpaceX compute model questioned(2 posts)→
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