How random is peer review? NeurIPS 2021: 23% of decisions flip with different reviewers
JessicaHullman · x · 2026-10-30
The paper quantifies lottery variance: in the NeurIPS 2021 experiment, 23% of papers had flipped decisions under different committee draws. A claim-level analysis finds only 1/3 of claims appear across committees, and among directly checkable claims, papers refute the criticism 18% of the time.
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