Modeled at Chinese ASPs (~$900/stack), CXMT's HBM could hit 61% gross margin despite 25% yield

teortaxesTex · x · 2026-10-28

teortaxesTex highlights an analysis of CXMT's HBM economics: ask an LLM with stale (2024) prices and CXMT looks doomed; model late-2026 realities and the picture flips.

Key points (from the attached charts):

At the global $500/stack reference and 25% yield, CXMT earns only $1,693 gross profit per wafer — 6.6x less than SK hynix ($11,100) and below the $12,000 from conventional DRAM
Back-solving from Huawei Ascend price hikes (910C up ¥20k+ to ¥110k+, 950DT over ¥250k) implies $1,550-3,100 per HBM stack of pricing headroom in China
The author models 2027 Chinese prices at $570-1,600 per 36 GB-equivalent, $900 midpoint: at that ASP CXMT could reach a 61% manufacturing gross margin at 25% yield (77% at $1,500), or $6,109 gross profit per wafer
Directionally consistent with SemiAnalysis's June 2026 finding that conventional DRAM is currently more profitable for CXMT — but domestic pricing power could change that

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Modeled at Chinese ASPs (~$900/stack), CXMT's HBM could hit 61% gross margin despite 25% yield

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