Andrew Critch: scientists' groupthink means AI math progress will surprise them more
AndrewCritchPhD · x · 2026-10-28
Andrew Critch notes several major negative results already surprised him this year (e.g. around the Jacobian Conjecture) and expects more. But scientists on average will be far more surprised, he argues, due to groupthink around unproven hypotheses — he only assigns p(Riemann) ≈ 60%.
More from AGI Musings
- Founder: AI coding gives startups a structural edge — more hours, more risk, less coordination — yenkel · 2026-10-28
- AI discourse: coddling humans with sycophantic AI risks creating 'overgrown infants' — DionysianAgent · 2026-10-28
- AI that solves Navier-Stokes still can't write English: the jagged-intelligence debate — AlexTensor · 2026-10-28
- Jack of all trades, master of many: a take on persistent generalist agents — braelyn_ai · 2026-10-28
- Mengdi Wang: AI will become lab infrastructure, turning science into a continuously learning system — MengdiWang10 · 2026-10-28
- "AI Slop" Absolves Humans of Accountability; Call It "AI-Assisted Human Slop" — _vaishnavh · 2026-10-28