Almost everyone underestimated AI progress: forecasts off by years on benchmarks and revenue
ben_j_todd · x · 2026-10-27
Benjamin Todd argues the last 18 months' mistake wasn't overhyping AI but underestimating it:
- Superforecasters thought AI would match a top virologist team on a lab troubleshooting test by 2034 — it likely did in April 2025.
- AI experts predicted 14% on LiveCodeBench Pro (Hard) by end-2026; the best model hit 54% by May.
- Economists forecast the top AI company reaching $16bn annualized revenue by end-2026; Anthropic passed $65bn in September.
Only AI company leaders were overoptimistic, and not by much. The attached FrontierMath forecast chart shows accuracy at 40.7% for end-2025 and 52.4% by April 2026, far above most prediction curves.
Related event: Ben Todd: AI wasn't overhyped—almost everyone underestimated it(6 posts)→
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