Ben Todd: AI Wasn't Overhyped—Almost Everyone Underestimated It
80,000 Hours founder Benjamin Todd published a long-form piece, "AI wasn't overhyped. Almost everyone underestimated it.," grading forecasters of all stripes against actual progress over the past 18 months. His core conclusion: AI wasn't overhyped — almost everyone underestimated how fast it would advance.
Confirmed
- Humanoid robotics has far outpaced predictions: in December 2024, AI researchers' median forecast for when a bipedal robot could beat the fastest human over 5 km was around 2034; yet by April 2026 a humanoid robot had broken the human half-marathon record (averaging faster than human pace every 5 km), and 100m speed has surpassed Usain Bolt
- Todd notes superforecasters predicted AI wouldn't match top virologist teams on lab troubleshooting tests until 2034, but this was likely achieved as early as 2025
- Ranking of forecast bias by group: superforecasters underestimated the most, followed by the general public; AI researchers performed somewhat better but were still too slow
Why it matters
- This retrospective challenges the popular narrative that AI is overhyped, suggesting that mainstream forecasts — including superforecasters, famed for precision — may be systematically too conservative when assessing AI timelines
- Intuitive, verifiable metrics like robotic locomotion were repeatedly shattered within 18 months, providing concrete calibration cases for AI capability forecasting, with implications for policymaking and career planning (80,000 Hours' core focus)
2026-10-26 ~ 2026-10-27 · 5 related posts
Primary sources
- Humanoids shattered forecasts: half-marathon record in 2026, 100m faster than Bolt — ben_j_todd ·
- Almost everyone underestimated AI progress: forecasts off by years on benchmarks and revenue — ben_j_todd ·
- Everyone underestimated AI: Benjamin Todd scores 18 months of forecasts against reality — ben_j_todd ·
- AI researchers guessed robots wouldn't outrun humans until 2034 — it already happened — ben_j_todd · 2026-10-26
- Benjamin Todd: AI progress beat superforecasters over 18 months — ben_j_todd · 2026-10-26
- [source] Humanoids shattered forecasts: half-marathon record in 2026, 100m faster than Bolt — ben_j_todd · 2026-10-26
- [source] Almost everyone underestimated AI progress: forecasts off by years on benchmarks and revenue — ben_j_todd · 2026-10-27
1 near-duplicate retellings: ben_j_todd