Opinion: Chinese models a year behind at most, leaving OpenAI/Anthropic no business model
JHochderffer · x · 2026-10-26
The author argues a bearish view: Chinese models are at most a year behind OpenAI/Anthropic, and within a year cheaper (not free) models will match today's Astra or Opus—good enough for 80%+ of office work. Even if OpenAI/Anthropic keep the "best" models, those would only serve governments and scientific research. Most economic value, he argues, will flow to third-party hosts of open-source models, then in-house hosting, then fully on-device inference with no internet—in which environment OpenAI/Anthropic have no business model.
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