Ex-Amazon VP predicts model progress will slow to iPhone-style increments after OpenAI and Anthropic IPO
dbasch · x · 2026-10-24
Nikhil Basch (dbasch, former Amazon VP) predicts that once Anthropic and OpenAI go public and Series W investors cash out, we'll see a significant slowdown in model progress — shifting from today's rapid leaps to iPhone 17 -> 18-style incremental upgrades. He calls it the "Gmail era of AI": products mature and stop changing meaningfully. The underlying logic is that post-IPO pressure for returns replaces the capital-burning race, making aggressive investment unsustainable.
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