+5 to +13 95% credible interval on tau2 bench: more benchmark-noise evidence

remilouf · x · 2026-10-22

Following his claim that LLM benchmarks are so noisy all models are probably tied, remilouf adds concrete numbers: a +5 to +13 95% credible interval on tau2 bench, with a fuller analysis coming soon.

Related event: Bayesian analysis suggests LLM benchmark noise means models are effectively tied(2 posts)→

Original post →

More from Models

Models channel →