Open models now over 20% of tokens: deep dive on whether open source hurts GPU demand
dotey · x · 2026-10-22
A long-form analysis addresses the market's fiercest debate: will open-source models erode semiconductor revenue? Open models may already account for 20%+ of tokens and are accelerating, priced at a fraction of closed flagships. The author argues what matters for chips isn't open vs. closed but whether token sellers have fat margins—70%+ gross margin makes each GPU a money printer—while token prices and costs are falling at similar speeds (e.g., DeepSeek's sparse attention cuts compute per token). Accompanying charts cite Jensen Huang's claim that full-stack advances made LLM processing a million times faster, and UBS estimates of revenue per GW across data center deals ($5B–$55B ranges).
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