Widening AI Ceiling-Floor Gap Means More 'Out of Distribution' Events

curious_vii · x · 2026-10-22

The author argues AI is widening the gap between the ceiling and floor of capability, which will remain a source of arbitrage opportunities across commercial and public spheres. While the floor should rise in aggregate over the long run, it won't rise at the same rate — so we should expect a relatively greater frequency of "out of distribution" events, from startup growth to regime change. A macro take on AI's socioeconomic impact.

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