Value grows log-log with compute: why scaling past demand may yield zero returns
DimitrisPapail · x · 2026-10-20
Dimitris Papail weighs in on the compute-scaling economics debate with a three-regime chart: capability ∝ C early on, then ∝ log C, while value eventually grows only as log log C as the frontier outruns most demand — each capability step reaches fewer new customers. His take: once you're deep in that regime, scaling automated R&D/SWE alone won't cut it; you need new verticals. The original post adds that returns stack, and worse than loglog is zero: past a capability threshold that brings no new customers, no value remains.
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