Anthropic's Jack Clark at IMF: 'singularity is here,' AI could push US GDP to $44T by 2030
新智元 · wechat · 2026-10-18
At an IMF lecture in Bangkok, Anthropic co-founder Jack Clark declared "the singularity has arrived" and presented the firm's economic scenarios:
- GDP: baseline US 2030 GDP is $33.5T; a full-singularity scenario with recursive self-improvement pushes it to $44.4T (+32.4%, 15.4% annualized growth). The logic: cloning elite human cognition — 10M researchers directing 1B digital scientists.
- Evidence: internal code output up 10x; Humanity's Last Exam went from 8% at release to 67.7% (Claude Opus 5.5); FrontierMath from 2% to 94%; on the new TheoPhysEval physics benchmark, models caught calculation errors in human expert answer keys, scoring 98% after correction.
- RSI: Vals' RSI Index ranks Claude Opus 5.5 first at 37% vs OpenAI 28%; Anthropic projects 50-60% by 2027, a year ahead of OpenAI. Top models already self-direct 12-30 hour compute budgets for LM training.
- Advice: rote-learning careers will be crushed; value shifts to creativity, liberal arts, and ethics. India's chief economic advisor suggested physical and care work as refuges.
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