Holding P(simulations)=50% while P(I'm simulated)≈1 seems crazy
AaronBergman18 · x · 2026-10-17
The author closes the thread by arguing that it's roughly crazy (inside view only) to assign a 50% probability to simulations ever being generated while simultaneously believing you're almost certainly in one—though he notes this is famously a contested position. Same event as the thread's opening post.
Related event: Simulation argument mapped onto the Sleeping Beauty problem(3 posts)→
More from AGI Musings
- Dev scrapes all 43,013 ICLR 2027 submissions and builds a citation-ranking site with Codex and Claude — yshan2u · 2026-10-17
- Scobleizer visits TheHumanoidHub: robots for devs this year, everyone else after 2030 — Scobleizer · 2026-10-17
- The Future of Media: People With Direction vs. People Generating Noise — AIandDesign · 2026-10-17
- Tuhin: AI Is Dangerously Concentrating Power in the Hands of a Few — joonasvirtanen · 2026-10-17
- The simulation argument maps neatly onto the Sleeping Beauty problem — AaronBergman18 · 2026-10-17
- Debate: neural networks are built to be read — is mech interp easier than claimed? — basedjensen · 2026-10-17