The simulation argument maps neatly onto the Sleeping Beauty problem
AaronBergman18 · x · 2026-10-17
Aaron Bergman points out that the simulation argument maps cleanly onto the classic Sleeping Beauty problem in philosophy.
- Suppose you think base reality has a 50% chance of generating an astronomical number of simulations
- The Thirder position (1/3 on each waking) corresponds to believing you're almost certainly in a simulation
- The Halfer position (1/2) corresponds to thinking you're 50% likely in a simulation
- Other SB positions around 5/12 correspond to simulation-likelihood positions around 1/4
He adds that holding P(simulations get generated) = 50% while believing P(I'm in a simulation) ≈ 1 seems crazy on an inside view—but that's a famous point of disagreement.
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