AI's smartest bear case is supply: $500B GPUs idle, but demand is elastic
bittingthembits · x · 2026-10-15
The sharpest AI bear case today is about supply, not demand: $500B of GPUs await installation, spot prices have fallen below long-term contract prices, and compute factories can't switch off — echoes of the 2001 fiber bust. But bears miss one thing: AI demand is elastic like no commodity — halving the price of AI means agents use 10x more. Anthropic went from 2,500 merged code changes per day in May to 30,000+ in September, calling demand "practically infinite." History suggests infra busts hurt builders and enrich users (cheap fiber gave us YouTube/Netflix). The author pitches Bittensor ($TAO) as a factory-free market to soak up stranded compute, while conceding a capex bust would hit all AI assets including TAO. Not financial advice.
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