AI 2027 Scenario, Once Dismissed as Sci-Fi, Gets a Reread for Being Eerily Accurate
imjustnewatai · x · 2026-10-15
AI community members are urging a reread of AI 2027, the April 2025 scenario report by Daniel Kokotajlo, Scott Alexander and others, saying it read as sci-fi at publication but now looks 'super accurate.'
Key points:
- Written by 5 forecasters informed by trend extrapolations, wargames and OpenAI experience
- Core claim: superhuman AI's decade-ahead impact will exceed the Industrial Revolution
- Two endings, 'slowdown' and 'race', aimed at predictive accuracy, not advocacy
- Context: CEOs of OpenAI, Google DeepMind and Anthropic all predicted AGI within 5 years
- Authors note 2027 was their modal year, medians were longer, and they prize alternative scenarios
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