VC argues angel investors need 50-100 company portfolios to hit a big winner
dunkhippo33 · x · 2026-10-12
A detailed thread by dunkhippo33 on how many companies angels actually need to back.
Key points:
- Both "spray and pray" and concentrated portfolios are right — it depends on whether the company has product-market fit
- Post-PMF deals allow concentration; pre-PMF calls for 50-100 company portfolios, since 9/10 fail and you need enough shots at a big winner
- Round names are misleading: AI companies raise $100m+ pre-product, while 1990s Series A companies often had real revenue (e.g., Benchmark's $6.7M for 22% of eBay in 1997 at $30M post-money, when eBay had a $4M revenue run rate and was profitable)
- Early years feel awful: losers shut down first and winners can take 10+ years to show their size; spread investments over 5-10 years, 5-20 companies a year, through up and down markets
Related event: VC dunkhippo33 advises angel portfolios of 50 to 100 companies(9 posts)→
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