Toby Ord extracts per-model gamma values from AISI chart to price 10x time-horizon gains
tobyordoxford · x · 2026-10-09
Continuing his analysis of the UK AISI chart, Toby Ord shows each model's time horizon follows a roughly straight power-law line (80% time horizon ∝ tokens^γ), where γ is the slope readable directly from the chart.
He tabulates γ values per model and computes how many extra tokens are needed to match a 10x increase in human time horizon — concrete numbers for what token scaling actually buys.
Related event: UK AISI Data Shows Model Time Horizons Scale Sublinearly with Tokens(4 posts)→
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